Indonesia Market Prospects rau EV Muag Khoom thiab Chaw Tsim Khoom

Indonesia tab tom sib tw tawm tsam cov teb chaws xws li Thaib thiab Is Nrias teb los tsim nws txoj kev lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob, thiab muab lwm txoj hauv kev rau Tuam Tshoj, lub ntiaj teb tus tsim khoom EV tshaj plaws. Lub teb chaws vam tias nws txoj kev nkag mus rau cov khoom siv raw thiab kev muaj peev xwm ua lag luam yuav tso cai rau nws los ua lub hauv paus kev sib tw rau EV cov neeg tsim khoom thiab tso cai rau nws los tsim cov khoom siv hauv zos. Cov kev txhawb nqa muaj nyob rau hauv qhov chaw los txhawb kev tsim cov peev txheej nrog rau kev muag khoom hauv zos EVs.

Domestic kev lag luam outlook
Indonesia tau nquag ua haujlwm los tsim kom muaj qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob (EV), nrog lub hom phiaj kom ncav cuag 2.5 lab cov neeg siv tsheb hluav taws xob los ntawm 2025.

Txawm li cas los xij, cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam qhia tias kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom pib yuav siv sij hawm ib ntus. Cov tsheb hluav taws xob muaj tsawg dua ib feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov tsheb ntawm Indonesia txoj kev, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub Yim Hli los ntawm Reuters. Xyoo tas los, Indonesia tau sau cia li 15,400 lub tsheb muag hluav taws xob thiab kwv yees li 32,000 hluav taws xob muag khoom muag. Txawm hais tias cov neeg tsav tsheb tseem ceeb xws li Bluebird xav txog qhov tau txais EV nkoj los ntawm cov tuam txhab loj xws li Suav tsheb loj BYD - tsoomfwv Indonesian qhov kev kwv yees yuav xav tau sijhawm ntxiv los ua qhov tseeb.

Txawm li cas los xij, ib qho kev hloov maj mam hloov ntawm tus cwj pwm, zoo li tab tom ua. Nyob rau sab hnub poob Jakarta, PT Prima Wahana Auto Mobil tus neeg muag khoom pib tau pom qhov nce hauv nws qhov muag EV. Raws li ib lub tuam txhab muag khoom sawv cev hais lus rau Tuam Tshoj Txhua Hnub nyob rau lub Rau Hli xyoo no, cov neeg siv khoom hauv Indonesia tab tom yuav thiab siv Wuling Air EV ua lub tsheb thib ob, nrog rau lawv cov khoom qub uas twb muaj lawm.

Hom kev txiav txim siab no tuaj yeem txuas rau cov kev txhawj xeeb ib puag ncig kev tsim kho tshiab rau EV them thiab kev pabcuam tomqab muag nrog rau EV ntau yam, uas yog hais txog cov roj teeb uas xav tau kom mus txog qhov chaw. Zuag qhia tag nrho, EV cov nqi thiab kev txhawj xeeb ntawm lub roj teeb lub zog tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev pib siv.

Txawm li cas los xij, Indonesia lub hom phiaj txuas ntxiv tshaj li txhawb cov neeg siv khoom siv lub zog huv. Lub teb chaws tseem tab tom siv zog los ua nws tus kheej ua lub hauv paus tseem ceeb hauv cov khoom siv EV. Tom qab tag nrho, Indonesia yog lub lag luam tsheb loj tshaj plaws nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia thiab nyob rau qib thib ob loj tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam, tom qab Thaib teb.

Hauv ntu tom ntej, peb tshawb nrhiav cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb uas ua rau EV pivot no thiab sib tham txog dab tsi ua rau Indonesia yog qhov chaw nyiam tshaj plaws rau kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws hauv ntu no.

Tsoom fwv txoj cai thiab kev txhawb nqa
Joko Widodo tsoom fwv tau koom nrog EV ntau lawm rau hauv ASEAN_Indonesia_Master Plan Acceleration thiab Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025 thiab piav qhia txog kev txhim kho EV infrastructure hauv Narasi-RPJMN-2020-2024-versi-Bahasa-Inggris (Tebchaws Plan. 2020-2024).

Raws li 2020-24 Txoj Kev Npaj, kev lag luam hauv lub tebchaws yuav tsom mus rau ob qhov tseem ceeb: (1) kev tsim cov khoom lag luam ua liaj ua teb, tshuaj, thiab hlau, thiab (2) kev tsim cov khoom lag luam uas txhim kho tus nqi thiab kev sib tw. Cov khoom no suav nrog ntau yam kev lag luam, suav nrog tsheb hluav taws xob. Kev ua tiav ntawm txoj kev npaj yuav tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev ua raws cov cai thoob plaws hauv thawj, theem nrab, thiab qib siab.
Nyob rau lub Yim Hli xyoo no, Indonesia tau tshaj tawm ob xyoos txuas ntxiv rau cov neeg tsim tsheb kom ua tau raws li cov cai tsim nyog rau kev txhawb nqa tsheb fais fab. Nrog rau cov kev qhia tshiab, cov cai tswj kev lag luam yooj yim dua, cov neeg tsim tsheb tuaj yeem cog lus tias yuav tsim qhov tsawg kawg ntawm 40 feem pua ​​​​ntawm EV cov khoom hauv Indonesia los ntawm 2026 kom tsim nyog rau kev txhawb nqa. Cov lus cog tseg tseem ceeb tau ua tiav los ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub Neta EV hom thiab Nyiv Mitsubishi Motors. Lub caij no, PT Hyundai Motors Indonesia tau tshaj tawm nws thawj zaug hauv tebchaws tsim EV hauv lub Plaub Hlis 2022.

Yav dhau los, Indonesia tau tshaj tawm nws lub hom phiaj los txo cov nqi xa khoom los ntawm 50 feem pua ​​​​rau xoom rau EV cov tuam txhab xav txog kev nqis peev hauv lub tebchaws.

Rov qab rau xyoo 2019, tsoomfwv Indonesian tau nthuav tawm ntau qhov kev txhawb siab rau lub hom phiaj ntawm cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob tsheb, cov tuam txhab thauj khoom, thiab cov neeg siv khoom. Cov kev txhawb siab no suav nrog txo qis cov nqi xa khoom ntawm cov tshuab thiab cov khoom siv hauv EV ntau lawm thiab muab cov txiaj ntsig nyiaj so koobtsheej rau ntau tshaj 10 xyoo rau EV cov tuam txhab lag luam nqis peev tsawg kawg 5 trillion rupiah (sib npaug rau US $ 346 lab) hauv lub tebchaws.

Tsoomfwv Indonesia tseem tau txo qis tus nqi ntxiv rau EVs los ntawm 11 feem pua ​​​​rau ib feem pua. Qhov kev txav no tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv tus nqi pib ntawm tus nqi pheej yig tshaj Hyundai Ioniq 5, txo qis los ntawm ntau dua US $ 51,000 mus rau qis dua US $ 45,000. Qhov no tseem yog tus nqi them rau cov neeg siv tsheb nruab nrab Indonesian; lub tsheb siv roj av kim tshaj plaws hauv Indonesia, Daihatsu Ayla, pib ntawm qis dua US $ 9,000.

Kev loj hlob tsav tsheb rau EV manufacturing
Tus thawj tsav tsheb tom qab lub laub mus rau hluav taws xob tsheb tsim khoom yog Indonesia cov khoom lag luam ntau ntawm cov khoom siv raw.

Lub teb chaws yog lub ntiaj teb ua tus tsim cov npib tsib xee, cov khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim cov roj teeb lithium-ion, uas yog qhov kev xaiv tseem ceeb rau EV roj teeb pob. Indonesia cov nyiaj npib tsib xee tso nyiaj rau kwv yees li 22-24 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub teb chaws muaj kev nkag tau mus rau cobalt, uas txuas ntxiv lub neej ntawm EV roj teeb, thiab bauxite, siv nyob rau hauv aluminium ntau lawm, lub ntsiab tseem ceeb ntawm EV manufacturing. Qhov kev npaj nkag mus rau cov khoom siv raw no tuaj yeem txo cov nqi tsim khoom los ntawm cov paj ntau heev.

Nyob rau lub sijhawm, kev txhim kho ntawm Indonesia lub peev xwm EV kev tsim khoom tuaj yeem ntxiv dag zog rau nws cov khoom xa tawm hauv cheeb tsam, yog tias cov kev lag luam nyob sib ze tau ntsib kev xav tau ntawm EVs. Tsoomfwv lub hom phiaj tsim kom muaj 600,000 lub tsheb fais fab los ntawm 2030.

Dhau li ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom, Indonesia tab tom nrhiav kom txo nws txoj kev cia siab rau cov khoom siv raw khoom xa tawm thiab kev hloov mus rau ntau dua cov khoom xa tawm. Qhov tseeb, Indonesia txwv cov nickel ore xa tawm thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2020, ib txhij txhim kho nws lub peev xwm rau cov khoom siv raw, EV roj teeb tsim, thiab EV ntau lawm.

Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, Hyundai Lub Tuam Txhab Tsav Tsheb (HMC) thiab PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia, Tbk (AMI) tau kos npe rau Daim Ntawv Ceeb Toom Txog Kev Nkag Siab (MoU) txhawm rau txhawm rau ua kom muaj kev sib raug zoo ntawm txhuas kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev tsim tsheb. Kev sib koom tes yog tsim los tsim kom muaj kev sib koom tes zoo txog kev tsim khoom thiab cov khoom siv txhuas los ntawm AMI, nrog rau nws cov chaw muag khoom, PT Kalimantan Aluminium Kev Lag Luam (KAI).

Raws li tau hais nyob rau hauv ib lub tuam txhab xov xwm tshaj tawm, Hyundai Motor Company tau pib ua haujlwm ntawm lub chaw tsim khoom hauv Indonesia thiab tau koom tes nrog kev koom tes nrog Indonesia thoob plaws ntau lub tebchaws, nrog rau qhov muag ntawm kev sib koom ua ke yav tom ntej hauv kev lag luam tsheb. Qhov no suav nrog kev tshawb nrhiav kev nqis peev hauv kev sib koom ua lag luam rau kev tsim cov roj teeb ntawm tes. Tsis tas li ntawd, Indonesia lub ntsuab aluminium, uas yog siv los ntawm kev siv cov pa roj carbon tsawg, hydroelectric zog tsim, ib puag ncig tus phooj ywg lub zog, ua raws li HMC txoj cai carbon-neutral. Qhov no ntsuab aluminium yog cia siab tias yuav ua tau raws li qhov xav tau thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov neeg tsim tsheb.
Lwm lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb yog Indonesia lub hom phiaj sustainability. Lub teb chaws lub tswv yim EV pab txhawb rau Indonesia txoj kev ua raws li cov hom phiaj ntawm net-zero emissions. Indonesia tsis ntev los no tau nrawm nws lub hom phiaj txo qis emissions, tam sim no tsom rau 32 feem pua ​​​​txo (txog li 29 feem pua) los ntawm 2030. Cov neeg caij tsheb thiab cov tsheb lag luam suav txog 19.2 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov emissions tsim los ntawm kev tsheb, thiab kev ua phem rau EV saws thiab siv. yuav txo tau emissions tag nrho.

Mining kev ua ub no tshwj xeeb tsis tuaj yeem los ntawm Indonesia cov npe Kev nqis peev zoo tshaj plaws tsis ntev los no, uas txhais tau tias lawv tau qhib rau 100 feem pua ​​​​cov tswv cuab txawv teb chaws.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau cov tub lag luam txawv teb chaws yuav tsum paub txog Tsoom Fwv Txoj Cai No. 23 ntawm 2020 thiab Txoj Cai No 4 ntawm 2009 (hloov kho). Cov kev cai no tau teev tseg tias cov tuam txhab lag luam mining txawv teb chaws yuav tsum tau nqis peev tsawg kawg ntawm 51 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lawv cov peev nyiaj rau Indonesian cov tswv lag luam hauv thawj 10 xyoo ntawm kev pib ua lag luam.

Kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws hauv EV cov khoom lag luam
Ob peb xyoos dhau los, Indonesia tau nyiam kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws tseem ceeb hauv nws txoj kev lag luam npib tsib xee, feem ntau tsom rau cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv sib txuas.

Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb muaj xws li:

Mitsubishi Motors tau faib kwv yees li US $ 375 lab rau kev nthuav dav ntau lawm, suav nrog Minicab-MiEV hluav taws xob tsheb, nrog rau kev npaj pib EV ntau lawm thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
Neta, lub chaw muag khoom ntawm Tuam Tshoj Hozon New Energy Automobile, tau pib txheej txheem lees txais kev txiav txim rau Neta V EV thiab tab tom npaj rau kev tsim khoom hauv zos hauv 2024.
Ob lub tuam txhab, Wuling Motors thiab Hyundai, tau hloov qee yam ntawm lawv cov haujlwm tsim khoom mus rau Indonesia kom tsim nyog rau kev txhawb nqa tag nrho. Ob lub tuam txhab tswj hwm cov chaw tsim khoom sab nraud ntawm Jakarta thiab yog cov thawj coj sib tw hauv lub teb chaws EV kev lag luam hais txog kev muag khoom.
Cov tub ua lag luam Suav tau koom nrog ob qhov loj nickel mining thiab smelting teg num nyob rau hauv Sulawesi, ib kob paub txog nws loj nickel reserves. Cov haujlwm no tau txuas nrog cov chaw lag luam pej xeem Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park thiab Virtue Dragon Nickel Kev Lag Luam.
Hauv 2020, Indonesia Ministry of Investment thiab LG tau kos npe rau US $ 9.8 billion MoU rau LG Energy Solution los nqis peev thoob plaws EV cov khoom siv.
Xyoo 2021, LG Zog thiab Hyundai Motor Group tau pib tsim kho Indonesia thawj lub roj teeb ntawm tes cog nrog kev nqis peev ntawm US $ 1.1 billion, tsim kom muaj peev xwm 10 GWh.
Xyoo 2022, Indonesia Ministry of Investment tau nkag mus rau hauv MoU nrog Foxconn, Gogoro Inc, IBC, thiab Indika Energy, suav nrog kev tsim roj teeb, e-mobility, thiab lwm yam kev lag luam.
Indonesian lub xeev mining tuam txhab Aneka Tambang tau koom tes nrog Tuam Tshoj lub CATL Group nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv cog lus rau EV manufacturing, roj teeb recycling, thiab nickel mining.
LG Energy tab tom tsim lub US $ 3.5 billion smelter nyob rau hauv Central Java xeev nrog lub peev xwm los tsim 150,000 tons ntawm nickel sulfate ib xyoos twg.
Vale Indonesia thiab Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt tau koom tes nrog Ford Motor los tsim cov hydroxide precipitate (MHP) cog nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Sulawesi xeev, npaj rau 120,000-tuj peev, nrog rau ib tug thib ob MHP cog nrog 60,000-tuj peev.